Cash Flow Simulation and Other Tools for Planning

This course will offer participants the knowledge and ability to use Cash Flow as a business management tool to create value for shareholders. Participants will learn how to analyze capital expenditures, variable compensation schemes, acquisition opportunities, the probability of attaining a business unit EBITDA goals and operating managers performance using Cash Flow, how to analyze variable compensation using cash flow and to determine their worst scenario for cash flow.


Financial and strategic planning officials, risk managers, corporate treasurers, financial consultants, and economic and financial analysts.
No advance preparation required.
Students will be able to:
  • Demonstrate solid understanding of the basic cash flow determination methods
  • Have the skill to build and use a model for the simulation of cash flows within a firm
  • Discuss fluently about the practical applications of a cash flow simulation model in CAPEX decisions, budgeting, Variable Compensation fine-tuning and business unit managers' accountability
Attendees must have a solid knowledge of basic financial statements and theories. A course in economic modeling and basic statistics is required.
  • Introduction to Simulation for Financial Professionals
  • Financial Modeling for Corporate Finance - Evening
  • Cash Flow Analysis from a Risk Point of View
    Introduction to Cash Flow Analysis
    • Characteristics of cash flow and free cash flow
    • Advantages of free cash flow versus net income
    • Calculation of cash flow and free cash flow
    • Relationship between market value and free cash flow
    • Relationship between ROE and cost of capital

    The Definition of Key Value Drivers

    • Drivers of cash flow in the firm: economic & cycle variables and their modeling
    • Drivers of cash flow in the firm: costs and expenses variables and their modeling

    Statistical and Economic Modeling of Cash Flow
    Econometric and Statistical Analysis of Sub-Components of Cash Flow
    • Main econometric techniques applied to financial data
    • Basic statistics for simulation methodologies
    • Variables subject to simulation vs. those that are not

    Complementary Models Assisting a Simulation Exercise

    • Main definitions for the cost of capital
    • The capital asset pricing model
    • Modeling of the weighted average cost of capital
    • Capital budgeting using free cash flow

    The Final Simulation Exercise Using a Pro-Forma Cash Flow Statement

    • Simulation variables vs. decision variables
    • Continuous variables vs. dichotomous variables
    • Simulation of EBITDA, free cash flow or total business return

    The Planning Toolbox: Applications with the Simulation of Cash Flow Model
    Applications for the Simulation of Cash Flow
    • CAPEX decision making
    • Variable compensation calculation for executives
    • Worst case scenarios and alternative futures
    • Business unit manager performance attribution and evaluation
    • Cash flow at risk model
    • Example of simulation of cash flow methodology to analyze strategic investments
    • Modeling the optimal size of a war chest
    • M&A simulation and buying capabilities

    Clients who register for this course will receive a complimentary 4-month subscription to FT.com. The Financial Times is the world's most respected financial newspaper, providing a broad assessment on finance, business and the industrial sector. The move to the electronic version follows an ongoing review of our environmental responsibilities as a global business and as part of the Pearson group. FT.com also has features that are not available in hard copy, such as: Special Reports, Alphaville, editor blogs, education sections and much more! Subscriptions will start within 6-8 weeks of the start of class and are limited to one subscription per client. (Please note: as of May 1, 2011, the electronic subscription replaces the hard-copy 3-month Financial Times subscription.)

    Lunch is included for all students taking day classes.